Fonte: ANEEL
The Brazilian Electricity Regulatory Agency (ANEEL) opens today a public hearing with the aim of collecting subsidies to authorize the National Electric System Operator (ONS) to use the streamflow forecasting models CPINS and NeuroSF for preparingthe Monthly Energy Operation Program (PMO) and its revisions. The hearing, comprising an exchange of documents only, will be receiving contributions until 2/17.
The proposal of the ONS, to be evaluated, is to combine the results of the Calculation and Prediction Incremental and Natural Streamflows to Sobradinho (CPINS) with those of the streamflow forecasting model NeuroSF flow. According to the ONS, tests using this streamflow forecasting methodology showed significant gains over the current procedure, and its use was recommended in the PMO. The forecasting of natural streamflows is an important variable for the PMO, reflected in the definition of the energy price and its accounting on the market. The use of statistical techniques that incorporate precipitation forecasts into the streamflow forecasting process often improves the model results.
The CPINS provides forecasts for natural streamflows to the stretch between the Hydropower Plants (HPP) and Três Marias and Sobradinho. The process of calculating the streamflows in different stretches of river between the two reservoirs of two hydroelectric plants employs information from hydrometric stations São Romão, São Francisco, Carinhanha, Morpará, and Boqueirão, in addition to the flow of the tributaries and distributaries of reservoirs Três Marias and Queimado and Information on inflows to the reservoir of Sobradinho.
The NeuroSF is based on the technique of neural networks composed of blocks of nonlinear sigmoid regressions and aims to improve the daily streamflow forecasting process, 12 days in advance, in specific stretches upstream of the HPP Sobradinho. The use of the model is suggested to replace the existing methodology, performed by the CPINS model. The NeuroSF aims to provide better inputs to the PMO and, therefore, to the dispatch and operation of the hydropower and thermal power plants of the National Integrated System (SIN), which is reflected in the optimization and security of electricity supply
Technical Note ONS RE 3/179/2011 highlights that the CPINS model has been used since 2000 in the PMO and has shown satisfactory results for predicting streamflows in the stretch Três Marias/Queimado/Sobradinho.
Interested parties may contribute to send proposals e-mail cp001_2012@aneel.gov.br. Contributions may be sent to the Agency’s address (SGAN, Quadra 603, Módulo I, Térreo, Protocolo Geral, CEP: 70.830-030), in Brasília (DF). (BT/PG)
