R&D Magazine: Escelsa creates software capable of estimating future energy demand

Fonte: ANEEL

CLIC Energia publishes the ninth of the 30 projects selected for Revista de R&D 4^th Edition, released on 08/17 during the Sixth Congress of Technological Innovation in Electric Power (CITENEL) and the Second Seminar on Energy Efficiency in the Electricity Sector (SEENEL), held in Fortaleza (CE).The goal is to provide society with the results achieved with the R&D projects. The publication on site accompanies the order of insertion in the magazine.

The twenty-first article of Espírito Santo Centrais Elétricas S/A (Escelsa), demonstrates how the distributor and Daimon Engenharia e Sistemas have developed a software capable of estimating the future behavior of energy, i.e., the future demand for energy. The tool is a multivariate model, with access to multiple information sources, which makes the prediction more accurate than the genre of programs used today – the univariate model, which takes into account only the behavior patterns of energy in a historical series.

The software incorporates in their assessment historical data, external data, such as monthly values measured, and series of other correlated data such as Gross Domestic Product and temperature. It also gives access to aggregated tables with electrical information, graphical representations of the evolution of consumption, amount of consumers and maximum demand, besides load curves. All these data, according to Escelsa, were available in different programs of the distributor’s database, with no connection. By integrating them, the researchers say that the software will contribute to the prediction of the global market for point of supply and distribution substation and space, assisting in market and investment analysis, and also in the planning of works to strengthen, expand and maintain the distribution network.

The full text of all articles can be found here (R&D Magazine 4^th Edition). (BT/DB).

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Software provides analysis of market forecasting of distributor

In order to get support tool for studying the behavior of the energy (power demand), researchers of Escelsa (Espírito Santo Centrais Elétricas S/A) and Daimon Engenharia e Sistemas have developed a software that allows one to analyze historical data and external data (such as values measured monthly) and contribute to market prediction on several levels: global, per point of supply or distribution substation and space. The tool uses georeferenced information and allows automated general and specific queries through thematic maps and consumer demand for geographical (local) or electrical entities. The software also allows one to view information tables with electric aggregate, graphical representations of trends in consumption, amount of consumers and maximum demand, besides load curves. Researchers say the tool will help, effectively, the market analysis that directs the actions of strategic investments. The program also contributes to the study of plannings of works to strengthen, expand and maintain the distribution network. Unlike the univariate forecasting models that use only the historical series to predict future behavior, the software developed uses multivariable model that incorporates, in addition to the historical series of demand, time series of other correlated data (such as Gross Domestic Product and temperature) . Researches assessed that, as an immediate result, there was improvement in the way of organization and storage of information. Although most of the data used in the model is stored in a corporative database, they were generally used in a disaggregated and different software, which hindered work integration.